Delayed 2020 US Census data has thrown Oregon’s congressional and legislative redistricting into a cocked hat – and for the moment into the Oregon Supreme Court.
Oregon lawmakers are asking for a ruling from the state’s high court for more time to draw the lines for congressional and legislative districts and to block the Secretary of State from stepping in to assume the duty, as provided by the Oregon Constitution if the legislature fails to meet its July 1 deadline. Missing the deadline Is unavoidable since Census maps on which redistricting is based won’t be available until September.
The legislative redistricting committee held its first virtual hearings this week to take testimony from residents in Northwest Oregon and Eastern Oregon. A total of 10 hearings are scheduled, with two in each of the state’s existing five congressional districts. One of the key topics is how to draw the lines if Oregon qualifies, as expected, for a sixth congressional district. A decision on congressional apportionment could come in April.
The Supreme Court filing by legislative leaders names Secretary of State Shemia Fagan as defendant. However, Fagan, House Speaker Tina Kotek and Senate President Peter Courtney, all Democrats, say there isn’t any animosity. “We all share the need for clarity on how to proceed in these unprecedented times,” Kotek and Courtney said in a statement.
Assuming the Supreme Court grants the legislature until December to develop and approve redrawn congressional and legislative district lines, that won’t leave much time for candidates, especially in a new congressional district, to fundraise and campaign. One option under consideration is to push back the Oregon May primary until the summer or September. Trying to carve out districts without up-to-date Census data runs the risk of running afoul of federal requirements under the Voting Rights Act.
The history of redistricting in Oregon is checkered, with the task often falling to the secretary of state to complete. Legislative approval of new district lines in 2011 was the first time in decades that the legislature succeeded in approving a redistricting plan.
With the advent of computers and court-ordered guidelines, redistricting has become more computer science than backroom politics, though partisan, community and individual member considerations still matter. That will be especially true for the new Sixth Congressional District, which could give new political prominence to a city like Bend as well as open up opportunities for eager candidates from both major parties.
Oregon’s population has grown by around 435,000 people in the last decade. Roughly half of that growth has occurred in the Portland metropolitan area, which already is represented in three of the state’s five existing congressional districts. Population increases in Bend and Redmond exceeded the growth rate in the rest of the state, making it a potential anchor for the new congressional district.
Democrats are in the driver’s seat on redistricting, so it won’t be surprising if new lines make the Fifth Congressional District, which centers on Salem, more firmly Democratic and create a new Sixth Congressional District that would be an uphill battle for a Republican to win.
Democrats are in the driver’s seat on redistricting, so it won’t be surprising if new lines make the Fifth Congressional District, which centers on Salem, more firmly Democratic and create a new Sixth Congressional District that would be an uphill battle for a Republican to win.
The mathematics of six congressional districts, 60 Oregon House districts and 30 Oregon Senate districts aligns to allow each congressional district to encompass 10 House districts and five Senate districts. How those lines are drawn may determine how many House and Senate seats minority Republicans have a chance to hold or capture over the next decade. Democrats already have supermajorities in both the Oregon House and Senate.
There has been a push to remove redistricting authority from the partisan hands of the legislature and secretary of state and assign it to a panel of nonpartisan citizens. That idea was floated in 2020, but didn’t come to fruition, so the job of redistricting remains with the legislature, if the Supreme Court can be convinced to give it the time to do the job when Census data finally arrives.
