Trump Exceeds Projections in Sweeping Victory as GOP Regains Senate Control
The Red Wave arrived two years late. Donald Trump returns to the White House and Republicans are set to dominate Capitol Hill, signaling major shifts on health care, economic policy, climate protection and foreign affairs during the first 100 days of Trump’s second term. At 78, Trump will be the oldest American to assume the presidency.
Political observers credited Trump’s sprawling victory to voter anger over higher prices even as the inflation rate subsided. Polls showed nearly three-quarters of voters wanted a change because of the high prices of groceries, rent and gasoline. Vermont Independent Senator Bernie Sanders scolded Democrats for ignoring the working class, which he said explained why working class voters abandoned Democrats at the polls.
In Pacific Northwest congressional races, the red wave didn’t materialize. Most incumbents retained their seats except for Republican Congresswoman Lori Chavez-DeRemer in Oregon’s 5th District. In easily the most expensive race in the state, Democratic State Rep. Janelle Bynum held a narrow lead over DeRemer. Washington Democratic 3rd District Congresswoman Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez defeated her two-time rival Joe Kent. Both races have a bearing on control of the U.S. House.
Oregon Democratic freshmen incumbents Andrea Salinas and Val Hoyle prevailed in contested races. Democratic State Rep. Maxine Dexter handily won the 3rd District seat based in Portland to succeed Earl Blumenauer who retired. Republican 2nd District Congressman Cliff Bentz cruised to re-election as did Democratic 1st District Congresswoman Suzanne Bonamici.
Pacific Northwest State Elections
Oregon voters chose three Democrats for statewide offices, retained Democratic control of the legislature and rejected ballot measures to switch to ranked-choice voting and impose a corporate tax to fund individual payments to Oregonians.
Oregon Senate Democrats achieved a three-fifths supermajority with the election of Anthony Broadman in Bend, the first Democrat to hold the seat in 62 years.
Tobias Read registered the most comfortable win in his successful bid to become Oregon secretary of state. Dan Rayfield overcame a challenge from Republican Will Lathrop to succeed Ellen Rosenblum as attorney general. Elizabeth Steiner notched the narrowest win for treasurer of outgoing Republican State Senator Brian Boquist. Using ranked-choice voting for the first time, Portland voters elected political newcomer Keith Wilson as mayor.
Washington voters chose a new Democratic governor in Bob Ferguson, who has been the state’s attorney general since 2013. They re-elected Democratic Lieutenant Governor Denny Heck, who is a Vancouver native. Democratic Senator Maria Cantwell easily won re-election. Former 3rd District Congresswoman Jaime Herrera Beutler lost her bid to become Washington Commissioner of Public Lands to Democrat Dave Upthegrove.
Evidence of the Red Wave
Trump’s triumph exceeded predictions of a close presidential race as Trump won Blue Wall states including Pennsylvania. Exit polls showed he performed well with male voters, while Kamala Harris underperformed with women voters. Vote tallies showed disappointing turnout in reliably blue urban areas, including Multnomah County.
In contrast to four years ago when Trump refused to acknowledge Joe Biden’s victory, Kamala Harris called to congratulate him on his victory. She delivered a next-day address to supporters and staff at her alma mater Howard University promising a peaceful transfer of power. In a separate speech, Biden also promised a peaceful transfer of power.
Republicans expected to recapture control of the Senate, flipping seats in West Virginia, Ohio and Montana and defending contested seats in Texas and Florida. Republican control of the Senate will grease the wheels to confirm Trump Cabinet appointments and judicial nominations. It also means Oregon Democratic Senator Ron Wyden and Washington Democratic Senators Patty Murray and Cantwell will lose their committee chairmanships.
Control of the House remains uncertain as two dozen races are too close to call, including the DeRemer-Bynaum race in Oregon. House Speaker Mike Johnson predicted Republicans would retain control of the House. He also predicted expedited action in Congress on Trump’s agenda for including immigration, tax cuts and energy policies.
Trump’s Second Term Policies
Trump has promised a massive deportation of illegal immigrants without offering details on how it would be done or how much it would cost. He also has called for wide-ranging import tariffs, tax cuts for corporations, elimination of taxes on tips and Social Security income and repeal of green energy tax credits.
The former president claims tariff revenue would cover the cost of his proposed tax cuts, a claim disputed by many economists who believe Trump’s economic policies will reignite inflation. The stock market reacted more positively to Trump’s re-election, recording the highest post-election jump on the Dow in 128 years in anticipation of corporate tax cuts and more deregulation.
During the campaign, Trump and his vice presidential running mate JD Vance hinted at health care changes without being specific. The closest they came was Vance’s suggestion to offer cheaper health insurance for younger, healthier people. Critics said that would raise health insurance premiums for older adults and people with pre-existing conditions. Democrats have pushed for a wider set of price caps on drugs such as insulin, but Trump backed off on his previous support for parity between the cost of drugs domestically and overseas.
Trump widened his political appeal, especially among male and white voters, by promising to fix the nation’s economy. During the campaign, he didn’t offer details on how he would lower grocery prices and housing costs to pre-pandemic levels. His policy to address higher gas prices is allow more drilling for oil, even though the United States is already the world’s largest oil producer.
Trump returns to office amid raging conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East, as well as the rise of a new global axis involving China, Russia, Iran and North Korea. Trump said he could quickly end the war in Ukraine, though he never explained how or at what price. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears to have taken bolder military actions in Gaza, Lebanon, the West Bank and Iran in anticipation of Trump’s return and support.
Trump’s re-election has put European and Indo-Pacific allies on edge. China’s leadership congratulated Trump but quietly expressed concern about an escalated trade war. The Chinese economy is in a slump with manufacturing output down and unemployment, especially among young workers, up.
Trump has consistently complained about being politically persecuted, and frequently on the campaign trail pledged to prosecute his political enemies if re-elected. Despite his political grievances, it’s more likely Trump will pardon his political allies and participants in the January 6 attack on Congress.
Another notable difference in the aftermath of the 2024 election – the absence of a flood of voter fraud claims.
