Three Nail-Biters Among Only 43 Competitive House Races Nationwide
Oregon and Washington voters won’t determine who wins the presidency in the November 5th election but they could influence what party controls the U.S. House next year. Republicans hold a narrow majority in the current Congress.
The Cook Political Report says there are only 43 competitive races, split evenly between the two major political parties, out of 435 nationwide races. Three of the competitive races are in the Pacific Northwest – Oregon’s 5th and 6th Districts and Washington’s 3rd District. One House seat is held by a Republican and the other two by Democrats.
By comparison, there are only four competitive House seats in New York and seven in California. Texas has just one. Twenty-two states and the District of Columbia don’t have any competitive races for House seats.
Competitive Pacific Northwest Races
Washington 3rd District Democratic Congresswoman Marie Gluesenkamp Perez faces a rematch with Republican Joe Kent after she won a narrow victory in the GOP-leaning district in Southwest Washington in 2022.
Oregon 5th District GOP Congresswoman Lori Chavez-DeRemer seeks re-election in a competitive, turned-bitter contest with Democratic State Rep. Janelle Bynum. Chavez-DeRemer and Bynum have squared off before in two legislative races. Bynum won both.
Oregon 6th District Democratic Congresswoman Andrea Salinas clashes again with Republican businessman Mike Erickson, whom she narrowly defeated in 2022 in the first election in the new congressional seat created after redistricting.
Of the 43 competitive House races, 26 are considered toss-ups, including Washington’s 3rd District and Oregon’s 5th District contests. Oregon’s 6th District is viewed as lean Democratic.
Well-Funded Campaigns
Television ads have run back-to-back for weeks, turning more negative as election day nears and reflecting national interest in the races that could tip the balance of control in the next Congress. Republicans possess 220 House seats and Democrats hold 212 seats. There are three vacant House seats.
Gluesenkamp Perez has raised more than $10 million in her re-election bid, while Kent has reported campaign contributions of $2.43 million, according to Federal Election Commission data as of October 15. Heading into the final days before the election, Gluesenkamp Perez has more than twice as much cash on hand as Kent.
Bynum has collected $5.9 million to Chavez-DeRemer’s $5.51 million. Bynum raised $3.4 million during July and September, which is the largest quarterly amount raised by a federal candidate in Oregon history. The race shapes up as the most expensive House race in state history.
Salinas has raised $3.2 million for her re-election campaign while Erickson, who lent his unsuccessful 2022 campaign $3 million, has focused less this round on fundraising than direct voter contact. He claims he shook 20,000 hands at various parades and the Oregon State Fair. Salinas has TV ads. Erickson has huge road signs.
Major Campaign Issues
Chavez-DeRemer stresses her bipartisanship in her first term. Kent and Erickson talk about immigration, high prices and public safety.
Gluesenkamp Perez points to her first-term bipartisan legislative efforts and willingness to cross party lines on key votes. Salinas stresses her support for the working class and mental health issues. Bynum champions her legislative work in Salem.
Chavez-DeRemer’s negative advertising has outed Bynum’s support for Measure 110 and a legislative colleague accused of sexual harassment. Bynum’s ads accuse Chavez-DeReemer of reneging on campaign promises to protect Social Security and abortion rights.
One of Kent’s ads shows a clip of Gluesenkamp Perez making light of border security. Gluesenkamp Perez has run TV spots calling Kent dangerous because of associations with far-right groups and support for a national abortion ban.
Salinas has mostly aired positive TV commercials about her priorities, but recently revived a 2022 spot that claims Erickson, an abortion opponent, gave a pregnant girlfriend $300 and dropped her off at a clinic for an abortion. Erickson has put up an ad claiming Salinas is lying about his past actions.
Other Interesting Pacific Northwest Races
Control of the Senate is also up for grabs in November, but the only race in the Pacific Northwest isn’t viewed as competitive. Washington Democratic Senator Maria Cantwell is expected to win a fifth term. She has run a relatively lowkey campaign, while touting her sponsorship of legislation to boost domestic manufacturing of computer chips.
Washington 4th District Republican Dan Newhouse, one of only two Republicans who voted to impeach Donald Trump still in office, faces Trump-backed fellow Republican Jerrod Sessler in the general election. Washington’s top-two primary elevates the candidates earning the most votes, regardless of party affiliation. “The other Impeachers are mostly all gone, a good thing for the U.S.A.,” Trump has posted on social media. “Newhouse has to go.” Newhouse is seeking a sixth term representing a Central Washington district that stretches from Canada to the Columbia River. He won the seat in 2014 by defeating fellow Republican and football star Clint Didier.
Oregon 4th District Democratic Congresswoman Val Hoyle is seeking a second term with opponents on both the right and left. Republican Monique DeSpain says Hoyle hasn’t done enough to address border security, drugs and crime. Green Party candidate Justin Filip says Hoyle failed to take a stronger stance on ending the conflict in Gaza. Libertarian Dan Bahlen is also on the general election ballot, potentially further splintering the vote. Hoyle says she has focused on housing issues and raised concerns about corporate investors taking over healthcare organizations.
Former Oregon State Rep. Maxine Dexter won the Democratic primary in Oregon’s 3rd District, which is tantamount to being elected to the House seat held by retiring Congressman Earl Blumenauer. Dexter, who is a medical doctor, has the political luxury this fall of gearing up to serve rather than campaigning to win. Dexter served in the Oregon House for two terms. She earned her undergraduate and medical degree from the University of Washington.
Oregon 1st District Democratic Congresswoman Suzanne Bonamici is seeking a seventh term with only token opposition from a minor party candidate. Oregon 2nd District GOP Congressman Cliff Bentz is also a shoo-in in a heavily Republican rural district.
